Forex Live News Feed

  • World Bank President Malpass: Russian invasion of Ukraine could trigger a global recession
    Malpass was speaking at an event hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on  Wednesday. Sai: "As we look at the global GDP ... it's hard right now to see how we avoid a recession," Russia's war in Ukraine and its impact on food and energy prices, as well as the availability of fertilizer, could trigger a global recession. Info comes via Reuters article, link here for more. These are not fresh concerns.  Read more »
  • Japan data: April Services Producer Price Index +1.7% y/y (expected 1.5%)
    Japan service PPI for April +1.7% y/yexpected +1.5%, prior +1.3%---Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) measures the change in the selling prices of services purchased by companies in Japanie wholesale inflation in services Read more »
  • South Korea is expected to announce price control measures next week
    South Korea vice finance minister says to expect price stabilisation measures early in the coming week. Read more »
  • Commerzbank forecast Brent oil to $95 by the end of 2022
    Commerzbank on oil, looking for a range in the near term and then down: expect that the price of Brent oil will continue to fluctuate between $100 and 115 per barrel in the current quarter then falling in the H2 of this year By year-end Commerz are looking for: Brent should be trading at $95 based on the assumption that there will be an EU oil embargo on Russian oil. This would increase demand for non-Russian oil, which would also have a price-increasing effect and thus justify a somewhat higher oil price level in the second half of the year than we have expected so far Read more »
  • UK car production fell 11% in April - chip shortages, supply issues, Ukraine cited
    Reuters report on figures from the UK's Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) car production fell 11% in April due to persistent chip shortages and supply chain issues, made worse by the Ukraine crisis GBP ticking a little higher: Read more »
  • Gold given a little of a boost after FOMC minutes
    A recap of gold moves on Wednesday via ANZ: gold struggled to find a bid amid the weak economic backdrop was under pressure from the opening of the session as the USD gained pared some of those losses after Federal Reserve minutes showed little appetite for more aggressive rate hikes. Fed officials agreed the bank needed to tighten in half-point steps over the next couple of meetings. More on the Fed minutes from Greg, here: FOMC meeting minutes for May 2022: inflation risks are skewed to the upside Gold update: Read more »
  • Japanese media reporting foreign tourists will allowed from June 6
    Asahi TV with that date. Pack yer bags!  Read more »
  • Australian capex data is due today - preview
    Coming up from Australia today, Private Captial Expenditure for Q1 (i.e. January - March) 2021.  For the headline, the expected is +1.5% q/q vs. the previous quarter's +1.1%. There will also be data on: building capex prior 2.2% q/q plant and machinery capes prior -0.1% q/q  And we will get updated estimates on capex plans ahead.  What to expect, in brief, via Westpac: A modest rise in equipment spending should see private new capital expenditure lift in Q1 there are, however, downside risks around wet weather conditions and supply headwinds, which should see Estimate 2 for 2022/23 capex plans reflecting a slippage in construction spending --- While we are here, AUD/USD update, you can see the resistance that has developed c irca 0.7120 on the hourly timeframe chart. Support, on the other hand, circa (just above) 0.7000: Read more »
  • UK government to give households up to GBP400 off energy bills
    UK Times (gated) with the report:Uk Chancellor Rishi Sunak will will scrap plans for a “rebate and clawback scheme” that would have given people a £200 discount on their energy bills from October. Energy companies would have recouped the money in the form of higher bills over the next five years, which led to criticism that the measure was effectively a loan. Sunak will instead convert the loan into a grant to be distributed by energy companies, with no requirement for people to pay the money back. Two government sources said that the value of the discount could be increased to as much as £400, which would cost more than £10 billion. Read more »
  • Forexlive Americas FX news wrap:Fed should expeditiously move rates to more neutral stance
    Stocks are more than halfway through the week and major indices are higherRussia says opening two sea corridors from Ukraine portsFOMC meeting minutes for May 2022: inflation risks are skewed to the upsideUS treasury sells $48 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 2.736%Feds Brainard: Fed is talking strong actions to bring inflation downKansas City Fed Pres. Esther George to retire in January 2023Exxon says refining shortages are due to closures during the pandemicEuropean major indices close higher on the dayAtlanta Fed GDPNow falls to 1.8% from 2.4% lastUS weekly oil inventories -1.019M vs. expectations of -0.737MAxios: White House senior advisors are on a secret visit to Saudi ArabiaToll Brothers says cancellation rates remain low in MayUS April durable goods 0.4% vs. 0.6% expectedThe USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest as NA traders enter for the dayDollar Extends Drop, Kiwi Stable into RBNZ, Yen OutperformsForexLive European FX news wrap: Dollar regains some ground as risk slipsECB's Knot: Inflation expectations are at the upper limit of being well-anchoredUS MBA mortgage applications w.e. 20 May -1.2% vs -11.0% priorECB's Knot: We will have a large balance sheet for some time to comeThe FOMC meeting minutes… Read more »
  • Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 26 May 2022
    Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so: Read more »
  • China coronavirus - Real-time trucking data in China no longer publicly available
    Bloomberg carried the report overnight: Real-time trucking data that shows the heavy toll of COVID restrictions on China’s economy is no longer being made publicly available, according to the company that collects the information. About the data: G7 Connect is the fimr that collects the data data is gathered from millions of trucks across China previously, the data was available on its website and through other data providers now requires pre-approved individuals and companies to log on to its website to access the information. Bloomberg requested a comment from the firm and got this baloney in return: “This is intended for us to build better connections with individuals and institutions that care about road freight, and help them acquire more comprehensive and accurate insight,” G7 said in response to questions from Bloomberg News. Removing traffic data from public view makes it more difficult to assess the damage China's ineffective COVID response is inflicting on the economy.  Link to Bloomberg is here, gated.  Read more »
  • Stocks are more than halfway through the week and major indices are higher
    The major US stock indices are all closing higher on the day. Moreover, the indices are also higher on the week with 2 days left to go. When the S&P and NASDAQ index are down for 7 consecutive weeks and the Dow is down for 8 consecutive weeks, closing with a positive week is a big thing.The final numbers are showing:Dow Jones, +191.66 points or 0.6% at 32120.27S&P index up 37.25 points or 0.95% at 3978.74NASDAQ index up 170.3 points or 1.51% at 11434.75Russell 2000 rose 34.33 points or 1.95% at 1799.16After the close Snowflake revenues beat but earnings-per-share were much weaker than expectations:Revenues $422.4 million vs. $412.8 million estimate revenues are up 85% year on yearEarnings-per-share -$0.53 vs. $0.01 estimateAlthough the revenues are up strongly and yoy sales gains are impressive at +85%, companies that don't make any money are having a tough time. Shares of Snowflake are down -11% in after-hours trading.Nvidia are expected to be released at 4:20 PM ET with earnings expected at $1.29/$0.67 GAAP on revenues of a $8.12 billionUPDATE Nvidia:EPS $1.36 vs $1.29Rev 8.29B vs 8.12B estimateGuidance for Revenue is $8.10B vs $8.44B est.Shares are down -7% Read more »
  • Economic calendar in Asia for Thursday, 26 May 2022 - RBNZ Governor Orr speaking
    Coming up at 2110 GMT, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr appears before a parliamentary committee.  Yesterday the RBNZ raised the NZ cash rate from 1.5% to 2% and also raised the expected terminal cash rate. The bottom and second from bottom links below contain the meat of the info from yesterday: RBNZ Governor Orr says the Bank is determined to contain inflation NZ cash rate 2%, going to nearly 4%. AUD cash rate 0.35%. Say goodbye to AUD/NZD NZD/USD surges after the RBNZ raises rates and outlook for rates higher Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate hike of 50bps, as expected Otherwise, data from Japan and Australia are due today. The Australian capex data will feed into GDP figures for Q1 2022. I'll have more to come on this separately. Read more »
  • Russia says opening two sea corridors from Ukraine ports
    Interfax is reporting that Russia is opening two sea corridors from Ukraine ports. It is unclear as to the details but if essential wheat and other commodities can leave Ukraine.  That would be good new for the global food shortage. Read more »
  • Dollar moves a little lower after the FOMC meeting minutes
    The USD moved a little lower after the FOMC meeting minutes, but are giving up some of those declines. USDJPY. The USDJPY is backed off from a test of its 100 hour moving average near 127.51. The current price is trading at 127.35 and traded as low as 127.22. Stay below the 100 hour moving average at 127.51 keeps the sellers happy. Recall from yesterday, the 100 hour moving average also stalled the rally (admittedly at a higher level). EURUSD: The EURUSD has seen down and up price action. The high price moved to 1.0689. That took out the New York session high of 1.06865 but only by a few pips. The current price trades between the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minutes chart at 1.0664 and the 200 bar moving average on the same chart at 1.06799. The current price is trading at 1.0674. Traders are still looking for a shove in either direction. GBPUSD:The GBPUSD moved to a new session high at 1.2578. The move took the price above the high price for the day at 1.2559, but the price has since moved back down to 1.2557 just below that old high. Earlier today the price… Read more »
  • US treasury sells $48 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 2.736%
    High yield 2.736%WI level at the time of auction at 2.732%Tail 0.4 basis points vs six-month average of 0.0 basis pointsbid to cover 2.44X vs. six-month average of 2.45XDirects (a measure of domestic demand) 20.0% vs. six-month average of 17.4%Indirects (a measure of international demand) 62.9% vs. six-month average of 63.9%Dealers 17.0% vs. six-month average of 18.7%Auction grade: C-The auction traded with a positive tail which was also above the 6 month average. The bid to cover was average. The domestic demand was above average, but the international demand was less than average.  There is more average to below average components to give a grade of C- (it is close to a D+).   Read more »
  • Feds Brainard: Fed is talking strong actions to bring inflation down
    The FOMC Board of Governor member Lael Brainard is speaking at Johns Hopkins University School of Advance International Studies commencement ceremony. She says: The Fed is taking a strong actions to reduce inflation High inflation is the Fed's most pressing challenge As a board member, Brainard is a permanent voting member on the FOMC. She was recently confirmed as the Fed Vice Chair.The full speech can be found here. It is a commencement address. Unless she speaks to the press, there is not much there except life lessons for the graduates from the Fed Vice Chair. Back in April, she had a lot to say in a WSJ article. You can read about HERE. WSJ article is HERE Fed's Brainard in a WSJ interview back in April Read more »
  • Exxon says refining shortages are due to closures during the pandemic
    Exxon is saying that the refining shortages are due to closures during the pandemic.  The statement makes me think of the implications of an event that can disrupt the apple cart and cause issues for years and years.Thinking of the supply chain, the pandemic caused a "fast break the other way" when inventories were no longer needed. Once there was a reopen, the rush to replenish inventories ended up leading to other problems as ports became overloaded and distribution of the goods was stressed due to lack of truck drivers, etc.  Now with the economy on the verge of slowing and/or spending habits moving toward services vs goods, the threat may be a glut of goods down the road.  Fed and central bank policy seems to be on the same type of path as they chase the ebbs and flows..    Read more »
  • European major indices close higher on the day
    The major European indices are all closing higher. Preliminary closes are showing: Euro stocks index +0.89% at 3679 German DAX +0.64% at 14012 France's CAC +0.90% at 6309 UK's FTSE 100 +0.53% at 7524 Spain's Ibex +1.44% at 8758 Italy's FTSE MIB +1.56% at 24249 In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are closing mixed: Europe 10 year yields are mixed Read more »